#29: False Promises and Big Profits

The controversial quest to live forever.

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Red Pill vs. Blue Pill

The quest for a longer life has captivated the imaginations of scientists, entrepreneurs, and the public alike, giving rise to a longevity market currently valued at $27.1B—expected to reach $44.2B by 2030. This market has been built on a foundation of scientific breakthroughs (gene therapies, anti-aging supplements, stem cell regeneration, etc.), mainstream democratization of health literacy, and medical researchers and clinicians who’ve dared to rethink health and disease, stepping outside the confines of traditional healthcare.

But beneath this burgeoning industry lies a very different reality: exploitation of science and consumerism through 1) promises of “miracle” pills; 2) animated personalities; and 3) pseudo-science—all disguised behind unproven scientific claims.

Science-ish

David Sinclair, a Professor of Genetics and Biology of Aging at Harvard Medical School, is considered a founder of the modern-day longevity movement and one of the leading anti-aging researchers of our time. He’s amassed a large audience (>1.5 million across all socials) interested in his study through his New York Times bestselling book, Lifespan: Why We Age and Why We Don't Have To, and his podcast about aging called Lifespan. With hundreds of papers published in top journals and 50+ biotech patents, Sinclair hopes to make living into the 100s a reality for all.

Today, however, Sinclair’s work rides a fine ethical line, one where his research efforts and business interests are blurred.

Co-founder of various anti-aging ventures including Life Biosciences and Animal Biosciences, Sinclair recently came under scrutiny for selling cocktails of supplements to consumers. Earlier this year, his claims about a new supplement that purportedly “reversing aging” in animal models were deemed too far by his peers, leading to his resignation as president of the Academy for Health and Lifespan Research.

Elizabeth Holmes, the Anti-Sherlock

Making bold anti-aging claims and being immediately checked by the scientific community is one thing. Deceiving patients, the FDA, and some of the most prominent Silicon Valley investors for years is another.

Enter Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos.

If you’ve never seen Hulu’s The Dropout or AppleTV’s The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, Holmes was the founder and CEO of Theranos, a blood-testing company with technology capable of running any type of biomarker panel using only a fingerstick blood sample. At the core of the business was a “revolutionary” blood analyzer technology called the Edison by Holmes herself. Compared to traditional testing sites and procedures, Theranos touted a superior level of accuracy, accessibility, affordability, and speed.

Only in reality, the technology had very limited capabilities and did little of what Holmes claimed—and she knew it. Fearing Theranos would be crushed in the blood-testing market if the truth came out, Holmes perpetuated falsehoods about alleged partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies as well as the Department of Defense.

Theranos defrauded its way to over $700m in capital raised at a $10B valuation from the likes of Rupert Murdoch, Betsy DeVos, Larry Ellison, Henry Kissinger, and the Walton Family. Walgreens even adopted Theranos testing sites in its stores across the country, believing Holmes’ supposed pharmaceutical partnerships were legitimate.

The actual number of patients who were misled and harmed by false health information obtained from Theranos is unknown. But a 2018 class-action lawsuit against Theranos and Walgreens featured nine ex-Theranos customers. Holmes and Theranos’ former president Ramesh Balwani, were each sentenced to 12 years in prison on numerous counts of fraud.

Testing, Testing, and More Testing

Despite the Theranos debacle, investors still seem to believe comprehensive testing is the future of health and longevity.

• Dr. Mark Hyman’s Function Health raised a $53m series A in June to continue offering 100+ lab tests to consumers—is Function a version of Theranos that actually works?

• Superpower raised a $4m seed led by Susa Ventures for its soon-to-launch concierge longevity medicine platform.

Billion Dollar Industry

Function’s lab tests cost $500/yr and Superpower’s “all-in-one” health membership will likely be pricey. Between personalized supplements, elaborate health protocols, and test after test after test, living longer sounds expensive. So it’s no wonder why billionaires are becoming the faces of the longevity movement. Many have invested in their own ventures pushing the bounds of human life.

• Jeff Bezos has backed both Altos Labs (cell restoration) and Unity Biotechnology (reversing disease).

• Larry Page spun Calico Labs out of Google in 2013 to research the aging process and develop breakthroughs.

• Sergey Brin was an early investor in his ex-wife Anne Wojcicki’s genetic testing brainchild 23andMe.

Today, the poster child for biohacking is undoubtedly venture capitalist Bryan Johnson. Three years ago, Bryan declared a controversial “war on aging” by launching Project Blueprint, a series of extreme health protocols designed to slow the biological aging process. Every day, Johnson follows a highly regimented routine consisting of time-restricted eating, sleeping by 8:30 PM, and consuming over 100 supplements.

And it seems to be working…

Through 3 years of Blueprint, Bryan reportedly has:

• a VO2 max in the top 1.5% of 18-year-olds

• sleep performance & recovery in the top 1%

• 50+ optimal clinical outcome biomarkers

• and speed of aging slower than 99% of 20-year-olds.

All this, though, comes at a steep price. The former Braintree founder spends nearly $2m on his health each year, with 30 private doctors and access to the best technologies in the world.

I actually love that Bryan is documenting his entire health journey online so others can try out some of his cheaper practices. But I take serious issue with two things:

1) Bryan, like Sinclair, has business interests that intersect with his own longevity campaign. He sells products and supplements on Blueprint’s website, some of which contain compounds that haven’t been proven to extend lifespan in humans yet.

2) Project Blueprint confirms what I’ve been afraid of all along—health is becoming a symbol of status (even more so than before), benefitting only those who have the means to afford oxygen chambers, red-light therapies, and rare and expensive mushrooms—further widening gaps in health equity.

How else can you explain Johnson’s “Don’t Die” dinner, attended by three Kardashian sisters and Andrew Huberman?

Biohacking

The idea of biohacking seems so backward to me. Feeling anxious, stressed, and in pain has become the new norm, which explains why many consider getting 8 hours of sleep a “hack” in itself.

We were always meant to sleep well.

We were always meant to spend our days outside.

We were always meant to move and move often.

Cost of Life

There’s a massive disconnect between what longevity should mean and what longevity means today. On one hand, we are suffering startling rates of chronic disease, especially among those living in rural and low-socioeconomic regions. On the other hand, billions of dollars are being thrown at unproven solutions being championed by billionaires and longevity influencers. No, compounding off-label drugs and extreme diets isn’t the secret to living until 150.

I had a tennis coach who once said when you are playing badly during a match, don’t start trying to play incredibly—you will make even more mistakes than before.

Just focus on going from bad to less bad.

And then from less bad to okay.

Our population-level health is currently really bad, but we are investing in solutions that make our health incredible, but can only be afforded by the wealthy anyway.

Instead, let’s address why we are dying so quickly in the first place: unprecedented levels of physical inactivity, inaccessible healthcare, and a food industry dominated by sugar and ultra-processed foods.

As far as magic pills are concerned, there’s more than enough compelling evidence that proper nutrition, adequate exercise, and sound sleep have more anti-aging properties than any supplement ever could.

We don’t need miracle pills; we need to make the basics of health zero/low-cost so more people can live longer. That’s the “secret” to longevity.

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What I’m reading this week:

• Altman, Huffington launching AI health coach, The Hill

• Not Everyone Has an Inner Voice Streaming through Their Head, Scientific American

• Why Doctors Aren’t Going Into Pediatrics, NYT

• AI leads the way as health tech funding inches toward a post-pandemic stability, STAT

• Will AI strengthen or erode human-to-human relationships?, Michelle Culver

• The rise of the 20-something VC, Fast Company

• Can Hinge help solve the Gen Z loneliness epidemic? The company’s CMO says a new initiative could help, Fortune

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